May 19, 2026. Indian cardamom exports have witnessed a strong revival in the global market, with shipments reportedly doubling in recent months despite continuing tensions in West Asia. The sharp increase in demand has mainly been driven by a severe crop failure in Guatemala, India’s leading competitor in the global cardamom trade. Industry sources said Guatemala’s production declined by nearly 50 per cent due to adverse La Nina weather conditions and pest attacks, creating a major supply gap in the international market. As a result, global buyers are increasingly turning towards premium Indian bold-grade cardamom to maintain supplies.
Exporters from Bodinayakanur stated that overseas buyers are willing to bear higher freight charges and adopt alternative shipping routes to secure Indian consignments, even as concerns remain over cargo movement through the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf trade routes.
The domestic cardamom market has also remained firm despite geopolitical uncertainties. Auction prices are currently ruling between ₹2,200 and ₹2,350 per kilogram, supported by strong export demand and limited global availability.
Planters from Kerala’s Idukki region said the current harvesting season is gradually nearing completion, with light arrivals expected till June. The 2025–26 crop is estimated between 35,000 and 37,000 tonnes due to improved weather conditions and better crop maintenance by farmers.
Although April’s heatwave initially affected plantations, timely showers during May helped the crop recover considerably. Farmers report that plantations are presently in healthy condition, raising expectations for a better crop in the coming season.
Industry participants believe that with normal rainfall and continued farm management, India’s cardamom production could touch 40,000 tonnes next season. Rising exports along with stable domestic demand are expected to keep prices firm even during periods of heavy arrivals.
However, growers remain concerned over the sharp increase in fertiliser and agrochemical prices, which may significantly raise cultivation costs in the months ahead.
Despite ongoing shipping disruptions and higher freight costs linked to the West Asia crisis, India’s spice export sector continues to show resilience as exporters explore safer and alternative logistics routes to maintain global trade flows.
May 18, 2026: India’s fertiliser subsidy burden is expected to increase significantly in FY27 as rising tensions in West Asia continue to push up global prices of urea, DAP, natural gas, ammonia, and other key raw materials. The ongoing disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have raised concerns over India’s growing dependence on imported fertilisers and energy inputs.
Industry estimates suggest that India’s fertiliser imports increased sharply during FY26 as domestic production remained largely stagnant while consumption continued to rise. Fertiliser consumption is estimated to have grown by around 3 per cent, whereas domestic production remained nearly flat at about 517 lakh metric tonnes. To bridge the widening supply gap, imports reportedly surged to nearly 249 lakh metric tonnes, significantly increasing India’s import dependence.
The impact is particularly severe in urea and DAP, which are the country’s most widely used fertilisers.
For urea, domestic production during FY26 stood at around 293 lakh metric tonnes, while imports increased substantially to build sufficient stocks for the Kharif season. India continues to depend heavily on West Asian countries for urea imports, making supplies vulnerable to geopolitical disruptions and freight uncertainties.
DAP imports present an even bigger challenge, with import dependence estimated at nearly 68 per cent in FY26. International DAP prices have reportedly climbed to nearly USD 900 per metric tonne, almost double the levels seen before the current crisis. However, with retail prices fixed domestically, import economics remain under pressure despite government subsidy support.
Global prices of key raw materials have also surged sharply since March 2026. Ammonia prices are estimated to have increased by nearly 60 per cent, while sulphur prices rose by around 50 per cent. India imports a major share of these raw materials from Gulf countries, increasing the sector’s exposure to supply disruptions in the region.
At the same time, imported natural gas prices have also risen significantly. Since a large portion of India’s fertiliser sector depends on imported LNG, higher gas prices are expected to increase production costs for domestic fertiliser manufacturers.
In April 2026 alone, international urea prices reportedly jumped by nearly 85 per cent month-on-month to around USD 950 per tonne, while DAP prices increased by about 30 per cent following disruptions in fertiliser and gas trade routes. Despite the sharp increase in global prices, the immediate availability situation for the upcoming Kharif season remains relatively comfortable. Fertiliser inventories as of April 2026 are estimated to be well above normal levels, providing a temporary cushion against any immediate supply shortages.
However, the larger concern remains the growing subsidy burden on the government. After declining over the past two years due to softer input costs, fertiliser subsidy requirements are now expected to rise again as global prices continue to remain elevated.
Industry observers believe the budgeted fertiliser subsidy allocation for FY27 may prove insufficient if current global price trends continue, potentially forcing additional financial support during the year.
Experts also warn that below-normal monsoon forecasts, rising import dependence, higher logistics costs, and volatile international energy markets could keep the fertiliser sector under pressure throughout FY27. At the same time, balanced fertiliser use, efficient nutrient management, and increased domestic production of fertilisers and raw materials are expected to become critical policy priorities in the coming months.
May 16 2026. Three-day international event concludes with discussions on market trends, food loss reduction and future industry policies
The INC Congress 2026, one of the world’s largest gatherings dedicated to the nuts and dried fruits industry, concluded successfully in Macao from May 12–14, 2026, bringing together global food professionals, suppliers, exporters, importers, traders and industry leaders for discussions on market trends, sustainability and international trade opportunities.
The annual congress, organised by the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC), served as a major platform for networking, knowledge sharing and strategic business discussions. Participants from across the world attended expert-led sessions, round tables and keynote presentations focused on the future of the global nut and dried fruit sector.
A key highlight of the event was the discussion on United Nations (UN) standards for nuts and dried fruits, where industry representatives reviewed existing regulations and considered important issues affecting global trade. The INC reiterated its role in representing the international nuts and dried fruit industry to ensure sector concerns are reflected in future standards and policy decisions.
The congress also reviewed progress on the INC-led Code of Good Practice, an initiative aimed at reducing food loss and improving handling practices across the dry and dried produce supply chain. Industry experts emphasised that better efficiency and sustainable practices will be critical in strengthening long-term supply chains and minimising waste.
More than 60 industry speakers and experts shared insights into current market conditions, emerging consumption trends, supply chain developments and business opportunities expected to shape the industry in the coming year. Discussions covered various commodities including almonds, walnuts, pistachios, cashews, raisins and other dried fruit products.
An additional attraction was the China Immersive Industry Experience, where participants explored China’s rapidly evolving snack and nut market through interactions with leading companies such as Chacha and Three Squirrels, gaining insights into product innovation, consumer behaviour and supply chain efficiency.
The event also featured networking activities, annual awards recognising exceptional contributions to the nuts and dried fruit industry, and specialised sessions including the Cashews Round Table, highlighting challenges and opportunities within the global cashew trade.
Industry observers believe the outcomes of INC Congress 2026 may influence future trade strategies, quality standards and sustainability practices across the international nuts and dried fruit business.
The successful conclusion of the Macao congress reinforces the growing importance of collaboration, innovation and responsible trade practices in the evolving global dry fruit industry.
May 17,2026: The Uttar Pradesh government has launched a major initiative to increase pulse production under the National Pulses Self-Reliance Mission during the upcoming Kharif season. The state agriculture department has set a target to expand the cultivation area of major pulse crops such as urad, moong and tur (arhar) by 3.11 lakh hectares this year. To encourage farmers, the government will distribute 49,129 quintals of seeds at a 50 percent subsidy. Officials said the move is aimed at strengthening pulse production and improving farmers’ income across the state.
Last year, pulse cultivation covered around 8.59 lakh hectares in Uttar Pradesh during the Kharif season. This year, the government plans to increase the total area to 11.70 lakh hectares. Among the targeted crops, urad cultivation is expected to witness the highest expansion.
According to the agriculture department, the state aims to increase urad cultivation by 1.60 lakh hectares, arhar by 1.32 lakh hectares and moong by 19,000 hectares. Under the seed distribution programme, farmers will receive 23,958 quintals of urad seed, 21,225 quintals of arhar seed and 3,946 quintals of moong seed on subsidised rates. In addition, 57,446 quintals of groundnut seed will also be distributed on subsidy to promote oilseed production.
The government will further support farmers through the Rapid Maize Development Programme by providing hybrid maize seeds.
Agriculture department officials stated that the scheme is expected to help Uttar Pradesh move closer to self-reliance in pulse production while also enhancing farm income and strengthening the state’s agricultural sector.
May 16, 2026.New opportunity expected to boost India’s agri-exports and strengthen trade relations with Southeast Asia
India’s agricultural export sector has received a significant boost as Vietnam officially approved the import of fresh grapes from India, effective from May 6, 2026. The announcement was made by the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) under the Ministry of Commerce & Industry, marking a major step toward expanding India’s agri-export footprint in Southeast Asia.
The approval is expected to create new opportunities for Indian grape exporters while strengthening agricultural trade ties between India and Vietnam. With growing demand for premium fresh fruits in Vietnam, the development could help increase India’s grape exports and diversify export destinations beyond traditional markets such as Europe and the Middle East.
However, exports will be subject to strict phytosanitary regulations. Indian grape consignments must follow a system approach for pest risk management and undergo in-transit cold treatment at a pulp temperature of 1.1°C for 15 consecutive days. APEDA has shared detailed import requirements with exporters to ensure smooth compliance and uninterrupted trade.
Industry observers believe the new market access will reinforce India’s position as a reliable supplier of high-quality agricultural produce globally. The move is also expected to support higher export earnings and strengthen India’s growing presence in international agri-trade.
APEDA has urged exporters to take advantage of the opportunity while strictly adhering to prescribed standards, stating that compliance will be crucial in maintaining India’s credibility and opening doors for future agricultural exports.
May 15, 2026. Higher procurement expenses, rising interest costs and food distribution charges expected to add pressure on government spending
India’s economic cost of rice is projected to rise sharply to ₹4,391.1 per quintal in 2026–27, an increase of nearly 8.8% compared to the revised estimate of ₹4,035.9 per quintal in 2025–26. The increase reflects growing procurement-related expenses and highlights mounting pressure on India’s food subsidy system.
According to estimates, the pooled cost of grain procurement is expected to reach ₹3,491.5 per quintal, accounting for almost 80% of the total economic cost of rice. The figure has increased significantly over the past decade, largely due to repeated hikes in the Minimum Support Price (MSP) and higher procurement costs. In comparison, the pooled grain cost stood at ₹1,976.9 per quintal in 2016–17, indicating a substantial long-term rise.
Additional procurement expenses continue to contribute to overall costs. Procurement incidentals are estimated at ₹521.9 per quintal in 2026–27, while statutory and obligatory expenses may reach ₹294.2 per quintal. Labour and transportation costs are projected at ₹67.3 per quintal, adding further pressure to procurement operations.
The cost of distributing rice through government food programmes is also expected to increase. Distribution expenses are projected to rise to ₹377.7 per quintal, compared to ₹313.2 per quintal in the previous year. The increase is mainly linked to higher interest expenses, estimated at ₹100.7 per quintal, while freight charges are likely to remain stable at around ₹127.3 per quintal.
The rising economic cost of rice reflects the growing financial burden of India’s large-scale procurement and public distribution system, which plays a key role in supporting food security programmes and subsidised grain distribution across the country.
Experts believe that unless procurement efficiency improves and logistics systems become more cost-effective, the continued rise in rice economics could further expand India’s food subsidy burden in the coming years.
World rice output projected to decline by 5 million tonnes, while consumption expected to hit a record high
The global rice market is showing signs of tightening after more than a decade, with experts warning that lower production, rising demand, climate concerns and geopolitical tensions could push international rice prices higher in the coming months. Industry analysts believe the world may witness its first significant rice supply deficit in over 10 years.
According to the latest estimates from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), global rice production for the 2026-27 season (September–August) is forecast at 537.8 million tonnes, nearly 5 million tonnes lower than the previous season. If realised, this would mark the first decline in global rice production since 2015-16, ending an 11-year growth trend. Major output reductions are expected in India, Myanmar and the United States. At the same time, global rice consumption is projected to increase by 3.8 million tonnes to a record 541.4 million tonnes, driven by rising food demand in South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and other emerging economies. Consumption exceeding production may reduce global stockpiles and tighten supplies in international markets.
Research agency BMI, part of Fitch Solutions, expects rice prices to maintain upward momentum throughout 2026. The agency estimates average rice prices could remain within $11.7–12.5 per cwt (45.36 kg), supported by increasing weather risks and higher fertiliser costs linked to ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East. Rising energy prices and concerns over fertiliser availability are adding pressure on farmers globally, especially in Asia where rice cultivation depends heavily on agricultural inputs.
Weather uncertainty is emerging as another major concern. Experts warn that irregular rainfall patterns, drought risks and possible El Niño impacts may affect crop yields in leading rice-producing countries including India, Thailand and Southeast Asia. Lower planting intentions by farmers due to rising production costs could further tighten supplies.
Despite lower production forecasts, India is expected to maintain its position as the world’s largest rice exporter. USDA estimates India’s rice exports could reach 25 million tonnes, supported by strong domestic stocks and competitive pricing. India’s large inventories may help moderate sharp price spikes in the global market.
Market observers believe the widening gap between production and consumption could keep rice prices firm over the medium term, impacting importing nations and increasing concerns over global food inflation and food security.
