ICAR Identifies 77 Paddy and 65 Maize Districts at High Risk from El Niño During Kharif 2026

The Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) has identified 77 paddy-growing districts and 65 maize-producing districts across the country as highly vulnerable to potential yield losses during the 2026 Kharif season if El Niño conditions lead to rainfall deficiencies. The assessment also highlights 36 districts each under sorghum and millet as particularly susceptible to drought-related production risks. The vulnerability mapping is based on crop performance during the severe El Niño years of 2002, 2004 and 2009, when these districts recorded at least a 10 per cent decline in crop production. Based on these findings, the Central Government has advised State governments to implement crop-specific contingency plans, water conservation measures and agronomic interventions to minimise possible yield losses in rain-fed farming regions. Official data show that rainfall deficits during the benchmark El Niño years were 19 per cent in 2002, 13 per cent in 2004 and 23 per cent in 2009, resulting in Kharif foodgrain production falling by over 22 per cent in 2002 and around 12 per cent each in 2004 and 2009. However, experts believe the current situation may not be directly comparable because of the expansion of assured irrigation, particularly through groundwater, though the distribution of monsoon rainfall will remain critical. Under its Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) for Kharif 2026, ICAR has recommended life-saving irrigation, foliar nutrient application, short-duration catch crops in case of crop failure, and harvesting severely affected crops as fodder. Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVKs) have also been directed to provide technical guidance to farmers. ICAR's Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture (CRIDA), Hyderabad, has begun consultations with major agricultural States, including Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Assam, Punjab, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, to strengthen preparedness for possible El Niño conditions. Despite weather concerns, the Central Government has set a Kharif 2026 foodgrain production target of 176.16 million tonnes, including 123.15 million tonnes of rice, 31.04 million tonnes of maize, 13.56 million tonnes of nutri cereals and 8.40 million tonnes of pulses. Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported that cumulative monsoon rainfall during June 1–24 remained 42 per cent below normal, with only 21 per cent of the country's geographical area receiving normal rainfall, underlining the need for timely contingency planning.