Smaller California Almond Crop, Smaller Kernels Raise Concerns for Global Buyers

California’s almond crop is expected to decline by around 5% this year, with total production estimated at nearly 2.55-2.60 billion pounds, according to almond grower Van Family Orchards. However, the bigger concern for the market is not just the lower crop but the smaller size of the kernels, which could affect the availability and pricing of premium-grade almonds. California is one of the world’s leading almond-producing regions, while India remains a major buyer of California almonds. Any significant change in production, quality or kernel size could therefore have a direct impact on India’s import market and domestic prices in the coming months. According to Van Family Orchards, harvesting began much earlier than normal this season and is progressing rapidly. Around 93% of the crop has already been shaken from the trees, while about 86% has been harvested. The company expects harvesting to be completed within the next seven to 10 days, making it one of the earliest finishes in its history. Quality, however, has remained encouraging. The share of damaged or seriously defective almonds in the raw crop was reported at just 0.6%, one of the lowest levels recorded by the company. The kernels are described as well-filled, round and with limited shrivel. Despite the good quality, kernel sizes are running about one grade smaller than last year. The average sizes reported for key varieties were 27/30 for Nonpareil, 23/25 for Independence and 34/36 for Butte/Padre. A comparison of around 15,000 acres also showed that processed production was nearly 20% lower than last year. Nonpareil production was down about 23%, while Independence recorded an increase of around 5%. The higher proportion of smaller kernels is emerging as the key market concern. Van Family Orchards estimates that in the major production belt stretching from Madera to Kern County, which accounts for roughly 60% of the state’s crop, around half or more of the crop is coming in at 30/32 size or smaller. For India, the development is particularly important ahead of the festive and winter demand season, when almond consumption typically increases. Indian importers and consumers generally prefer larger, attractive kernels. A shortage of larger sizes could therefore result in a price premium for bigger and better-quality almonds, even if overall supplies remain relatively comfortable. At the same time, increased availability of smaller kernels could keep prices of those grades comparatively softer. This may lead to a wider price difference between large and small-sized almonds in the Indian market rather than a uniform increase across all grades. Another factor to watch will be the pace at which the new crop is absorbed by international buyers. If export demand remains strong while supplies of larger kernels stay limited, prices for premium grades could face upward pressure. Conversely, weaker global demand could limit the extent of any price rise despite the smaller crop.