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Dec 14, 2025. India’s red chilli production in the 2025–26 season is likely to decline by nearly 20% as lower acreage, excess rainfall, and pest attacks weigh on crop prospects across key producing regions. Farmers in major chilli belts have reduced sowing and shifted to alternative crops such as maize, cotton, and pulses, citing better returns and comparatively lower risks. Despite the expected drop in output, market prices are unlikely to witness sharp volatility. Large carry-forward stocks from the previous season, coupled with muted export demand, are expected to adequately cushion supplies and keep prices under check. Sowing is still underway and has so far covered around 70% of the normal area, according to Velagapudi Sambasiva Rao, President of the Chilli Exporters Association. He noted that sowing has been staggered across Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Karnataka, making it premature to assess the final crop size. A clearer picture is expected to emerge by the first week of January. Unfavourable weather conditions, particularly excess rainfall during the sowing phase, along with increased pest incidence, have further impacted crop health in several pockets. On the supply front, substantial unsold inventories from the previous season are expected to balance the reduced fresh arrivals. Carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 55 lakh bags in Andhra Pradesh, 36 lakh bags in Telangana, and 45 lakh bags in Karnataka, which should be sufficient to meet near-term domestic demand. Export demand continues to remain subdued, especially from China, India’s largest buyer of red chilli, as higher local production there has reduced import requirements. This softness in overseas demand has further eased pressure on domestic prices. Overall, while the production outlook for the 2025–26 season appears bearish due to lower acreage and weather-related stress, strong inventories and weak exports are likely to keep the market range-bound, ensuring price stability in the short to medium term.