Turkish Dried Fig Prices Surge as Weather Shocks and Year-End Pause Reshape the Market

Dec 13, 2025.The Turkish dried fig market has entered a phase of heightened volatility, as severe weather disruptions and a seasonal slowdown in exports combine to reshape price dynamics. Persistent drought followed by frost in key producing regions has sharply reduced the 2024–25 crop outlook, tightening raw material availability and pushing prices higher across the supply chain. Raw fig prices have climbed to around 1,500 TL per kilogram, reflecting acute scarcity and strong competition among processors and exporters for limited supplies. This surge underlines a broader trend in agriculture, where climate-related shocks are increasingly translating into sudden and pronounced price movements. Despite this bullish backdrop, export activity has slowed noticeably as the year draws to a close. European buyers, in particular, have largely stepped back from the market, choosing to defer fresh purchasing decisions until after the holiday period. As a result, exporters report that recently concluded prices are expected to remain largely unchanged through the end of the year, bringing a temporary pause to active trading rather than a reversal of the underlying trend. In the export market, dried fig prices from Turkey are currently holding steady across grades and sizes. FOB offers from the main producing region of Malatya remain unchanged week-on-week, with Lerida and Natural grades maintaining their previous levels in euro terms. This price stability, however, masks the tighter fundamentals developing beneath the surface, as reduced raw material intake limits the scope for any near-term discounts. Turkey’s dominant position in the global dried fig trade continues to shape international pricing. As the world’s leading supplier, Turkey sets the tone for the market, particularly when adverse weather curtails output. Industry sources indicate that end-of-season inventories are likely to be significantly lower than last year, given the combination of reduced yields and steady underlying demand. Competing origins such as Iran and Spain remain limited in scale and are unlikely to offset Turkey’s shortfall in the near term. With alternative supplies constrained, global buyers remain closely tied to Turkish price movements, reinforcing the country’s influence over international trade flows. Looking ahead, the short-term outlook is mixed. The current export lull may persist until holiday periods conclude, keeping prices relatively stable in the immediate weeks. However, if tight supply conditions and weather-related constraints carry into the new year, the market could see renewed firmness or even further price escalation once buying activity resumes. For now, participants are watching weather patterns and post-holiday demand signals closely, aware that the balance remains fragile and prone to further shocks.