Global Pistachio Supply Set to Tighten Sharply in 2026–27

August 25 2026. Global pistachio supply is expected to tighten significantly in the 2026–27 marketing year as production declines across the United States, Turkey and Iran raise concerns over export availability and support firmer prices. Turkey is facing one of the sharpest setbacks, with production estimated at around 200,000 tonnes, nearly 50% below last season, following frost and unfavourable weather in key growing regions. Limited carry-in stocks are expected to further reduce exportable supplies. US production is projected at approximately 600,000 tonnes, down around 46% year on year. Although sizeable carryover inventories are expected to cushion the decline, total US availability could still fall by about 33%, increasing competition for California pistachios, particularly high-quality export grades. Iran is also expected to see production fall by around 50%, with electricity shortages and irrigation constraints placing additional pressure on orchards in major producing areas. Prices are already showing a firm undertone. Recent European FOB indications put Spanish organic green kernels near EUR 41.8/kg, Italian organic kernels around EUR 68.9–68.95/kg and organic in-shell US pistachios near EUR 22.1/kg. US wholesale prices for California pistachios have also remained elevated, with recent indications around USD 143.75–154.00 per 25 lb sack. With simultaneous production losses in the three major origins, buyers are likely to face reduced flexibility in switching between suppliers and stronger competition for high-quality material. The market is expected to remain firm through 2026–27, with further upside risk if final harvest results in California or Turkey disappoint or Iranian supply constraints intensify. Overall, tighter export availability and limited origin flexibility are likely to keep the pistachio market well supported in the coming season.